Forecast by Airbus on Requirement of New Aircraft

Airbus expects the worldwide passenger and freighter aircraft fleet to more than double in the next twenty years, the company said in its Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the period 2019 to 2038. The 2019 annual report, titled “Cities, Airports & Aircraft,” forecasts the need for 39,210 new aircraft - 25,000 to support a projected annual air traffic growth of 4.3 per cent and 14,210 to replace aging models by 2038. The GMF also anticipates requirement of 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new technicians over the same time period. “The four per cent annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short-term economic shocks and geopolitical disturbances,” said Christian Scherer, Chief Commercial Officer of Airbus. “Economies thrive on air transportation. People and goods want to connect,” he said.

According to Airbus, the GMF considers factors including demographic and economic growth, tourism trends, oil prices and development of new and existing routes. The 2019-2038 forecast segments operations based on aircraft capacity, range and mission type. Under that standard, of the requirement of 39,210 new aircraft projected, 29,720 will fall into the Small category (range up to 3,000 NM), 5,370 Medium (range up to 5,000 NM), and 4,120 Large (5,000+ NM range).